The Ceuta disaster sinks Sánchez and his partners, who have already lost 2.2 million voters

The erratic management of the Government in the unprecedented Ceuta crisis has translated into a heavy electoral burden for the PSOE. If the general elections were held now, Pedro Sánchez’s party would plummet to 101 deputies, 20 fewer than it achieved three years ago, and would only capture 25.4% of the votes, which would mean a drop of more than six points compared to the result obtained in 2023.

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On the other hand, according to the latest Sigma Dos survey for EL MUNDO, the PP to a lesser extent and especially Vox would capitalize on the public discontent over the delay in adopting measures regarding the 6,500 foreigners in irregular situations who remain in the autonomous city and Moncloa’s strategy of exempting Morocco from any hint of responsibility in the July 30 avalanche. The candidacies of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, with 143 representatives, and Santiago Abascal, with 61, would add up to a very large absolute majority with 204 of the 350 seats in Congress.

After the rebound recorded in March and May this year due to the boost of the No to war in Iran, since June the socialists have again been immersed in a downward trend weighed down by the indictment of former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, accused of belonging to a criminal organization, influence peddling, tax fraud, and smuggling, and by advances in the investigation of the sewer case led by the so-called plumber of Ferraz, Leire Díez. However, it has been the response to the emergency in Ceuta that has ended up sinking their voting intention to the worst estimate since the beginning of the legislature: for the first time it falls below the 26% threshold and is now closer to Vox from below than to the PP from above.

The overall management of Sánchez’s Government, who visited the autonomous city a day after what he called “an attack on the territorial integrity of Spain” and then went on vacation for three weeks, is considered bad or very bad by 62.9% of those surveyed, including 25.7% of those who voted for him in the last elections. Moreover, the president’s rating has dropped half a point in a month, to a score of three out of 10, placing him just one tenth above Abascal and four below Feijóo. Women and young people, who were key in his re-election in 2023, are even stricter in their rating and on average give him 2.9 and 2.8, respectively.

According to the survey – conducted between August 20 and 26 with 2,173 interviews – the best way out for the head of the Executive in this situation and the judicial siege looming over his circle, which could worsen further with the possibility of the party being indicted for illegal financing, would be to call elections and make way for another candidate (45.7%), to resign and delegate the command of La Moncloa to another party colleague (13.8%), or to submit to the verdict of the polls now (9.3%), scenarios also supported by 20.4%, 10%, and 11.3% of his voters, respectively. In other words, 68.8% of Spaniards and 41.7% of those who supported him three years ago now believe Sánchez should resign or call elections immediately.

Against this backdrop, with at most a year until the next general elections, still without a date, the PSOE holds the worst loyalty rate among its supporters (66.3%), only behind Sumar (34.8%), and 6.6% of them even admit that they would now cast a PP ballot. Those who, unlike in 2023, would no longer support Sánchez cite dissatisfaction with the Government’s management (39.6%) as the main reason, followed by discontent with his party leadership (31.6%) and distrust due to the information surrounding the Presidency (21.3%).

In contrast, in this new poll Feijóo remains at the higher end of the range of deputies assigned to him by the July survey, 143, which is six more than the seats he currently holds in the Congress chamber, and a 33.1% of the vote. This majority has been bolstered by the visit to Ceuta on August 19 by the PP president, who pledged that when he reaches La Moncloa he will not accept “blackmail” from Morocco and will “expel all illegal immigrants,” including minors.

In fact, Abascal’s party also capitalizes on the latent social tension in the autonomous city, which has already seen its first outbreaks of violence with attacks on several soldiers and the burning of shacks on Trampolín beach. The party positioned furthest to the right of the ideological spectrum would now secure the maximum of 61 parliamentarians it would have won a month ago, compared to the 33 it obtained in 2023, capturing 17.9% of the votes. It is also the party that maintains the highest loyalty to its initials (85.3%), followed at a distance by the Populars (74.5%).

Sumar is also dragged down by the Ceuta situation despite some of the parties that make up this “plurinational space,” such as IU, having pointed to Morocco’s responsibility in the avalanche. The coalition, leaderless since Yolanda Díaz‘s step back, declines compared to the slight rise of the last month and would now achieve 6.6% of the votes and 10 deputies, 21 fewer than three years ago. Its main loss of support would be towards the PSOE (21.8%) and to a lesser extent towards Podemos (18.9%).

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Parliamentary arithmetic

With these results, the coalition leading the Government remains with only 111 deputies, 112 if the purple formation running alone this time is counted, compared to the 152 it managed to gather after the 2023 count. Overall, they have already lost 2.2 million votes in three years and, even if they managed to convince all the groups that supported Sánchez’s re-election again, they would only have 139 seats, 37 short of an absolute majority.

On the other side of the result, the PP could govern with Vox’s support without needing to negotiate with any other formation to make the parliamentary arithmetic work with its largest sum since the last elections. Abascal’s strategy after the last regional elections has been to demand seats in regional governments in exchange for their votes, which has already happened in Extremadura, Aragón, Castilla y León, and Andalucía, so it would be expected that they would demand the same at the national level.

In Catalonia, ERC would add one more seat to its current seven, one of the few exceptions in the widespread decline of the left bloc, which on average falls from 47.9% support in the 2023 general elections to 40%. Junts, on the contrary, would lose three of its seven parliamentarians mainly to Aliança Catalana, which would debut in the San Jerónimo chamber with four seats. However, the leader of this formation, Sílvia Orriols, has publicly maintained so far that they will not run for Congress, considering that participating in the general elections of an “artificial State” would be inconsistent with their political stance.

The other revelation from the count would be Adelante Andalucía, the Podemos split that already surprised in its regional elections and would debut with two seats in the Lower House. In the Basque Country, Bildu would maintain its six representatives, tying with the PNV, which grows by one. Completing the parliamentary spectrum would be the two deputies of the Galician Nationalist Bloc (BNG), one more than now, and Coalición Canaria (CC) and Unión del Pueblo Navarro (UPN), with one each.