After the Government’s announcement, at the end of January, of the launch of an extraordinary regularization process for foreigners who were in Spain, Vox soared in voting intention. The survey conducted by Sigma Dos for EL MUNDO between February 23 and 27 reflected its best result of the entire legislature, with 18.3% of the votes and a group of 64 deputies, double the number it currently has seated in Congress.
At La Moncloa, they are aware of the gains that Santiago Abascal‘s party could obtain at the polls from the Ceuta crisis encouraged by its anti-immigration discourse. In fact, this week’s official argument has focused on encouraging the hypothesis of a cut in subsidies received by social entities in the autonomous city that help people in irregular situations, based on the “alliances with the far right” that the PP has in other communities to be able to govern.
According to another survey conducted by Sigma Dos just before the crossing of 80,000 people from Morocco on July 30, the majority of Spaniards -54.9%- were little or not at all in favor of legalizing the administrative status of foreigners residing in Spain before December 31, 2025. Although the greatest rejection was among Vox voters -90.6%- followed by those of Alberto Núñez Feijóo‘s party -80.6%-, practically one in three PSOE sympathizers -31.6%- also opposed a process in which 1,174,978 applications have been submitted.
After the Ceuta avalanche, the leaders of 22 of the 27 countries of the European Union warned in a joint letter led by Italy and Denmark that decisions like the Government of Pedro Sánchez‘s to give papers to a “very high number” of immigrants can act as “pull factors.” Furthermore, they linked this crisis to the perception that irregular entry could end up becoming a legal stay and to the limitation of so-called hot returns ratified in a Supreme Court ruling that had been notified three weeks before the massive maritime arrival of a number of people equivalent to the entire population of the autonomous city.
It was not until 14 days after those unprecedented images that the Executive implicitly acknowledged that its policy of granting legal residence permits with an initial validity of one year may lead more people to try to enter the country, trusting to obtain it in the future. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska did so by warning in a press conference: “No person who enters or intends to enter Ceuta irregularly will stay in Ceuta, none of them will go to the peninsula, none of them will be regularized. None of them, I repeat.”
The concern in Sánchez’s team about the mobilizing effect that the anti-immigration discourse may have on the right-wing electorate has been transferred to the official repertoire of the ministers, who in their public appearances this Thursday strove to equate the PP with Vox with the argument that it is “absolutely impossible to distinguish” the policies of one from the other in this matter. They did so with the hook that Feijóo committed the day before that, if he reaches La Moncloa, he will expel “all illegal immigrants and all means all, including minors.”
Sigma Dos Survey
Regarding the extraordinary regularization process itself, those who voted for Sumar in 2023 are, by far, the most convinced of it: 82% define themselves as totally or quite in agreement with this measure promoted by the coalition Government, according to Sigma Dos. They are followed at a great distance by those of the PSOE, with 63.8% acceptance. On the contrary, only 6.7% of those who cast their vote for Vox approve it and 17.1% of those who did the same with the PP.
By age groups, the survey – conducted between July 6 and 20 with a sample of 3,690 interviews – confirms that the greatest opposition to granting legal residence to foreigners who meet the established requirements is concentrated between 34 and 64 years old – more than 56% – and the lowest among young people, although it stands at 47.9%. In turn, on average, rejection among women -53.4%- is slightly lower than that of men -56.8%-.
The Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, Elma Saiz, will have to report in her appearance before Congress on August 28 on the impact that the decisions taken in this matter, including the extraordinary regularization, have had on the management of irregular immigration.
