Congress has clashed head-on with the Government, rejecting for the second and final time the fiscal path designed as a necessary preliminary step for the preparation of the 2027 Budgets, which would be the first and also the last of the legislature, since the country has lived for three years with the extended accounts of 2023.
The Chamber thus delivers, coinciding with the third anniversary of the 23-J elections, a very harsh blow to the Executive, demonstrating that it does not have a sufficient majority to pass what is considered the most important law, since it translates into figures its political project for a final year in office that, after this setback, has a high probability of collapsing prematurely.
The vote ended with the same result as in the first attempt, a week ago. PP, Vox, Junts and UPN showed their rejection – a total of 176 noes – thus exceeding the absolute majority threshold; the four Podemos deputies and the Compromís deputy, assigned to the Mixed Group, Águeda Micó, abstained, while PSOE, Sumar, PNV, EH Bildu, ERC, BNG and CC – 166 seats – voted in favor.
This second vote fulfills what is established in the law, which provides that, if the fiscal path is rejected by Congress, the Government must present a new proposal to the Chamber. On this occasion, it chose to submit the same one. After this second negative vote, the Executive will explore a new path: sending a Budget bill to Parliament with more restrictive deficit margins, adjusted to the strict fiscal rules established by the European Commission, which will ultimately mean that the Autonomous Communities will not have the 0.1% of GDP margin to spend – 5,840 million in three years – incurring a deficit. This margin, which the Minister of Finance, Arcadi España, has emphasized as very positive for the territories, is considered insufficient by most of them.
The Government, therefore, maintains its commitment to finally present a State Budget bill, even knowing that it will, in all probability, not prosper. Junts will again be decisive, and this party has already anticipated that the Budgets will not have its vote. Nor will they have the support of PP, Vox and UPN. Thus, a more than ample majority to torpedo them.
If the State accounts were rejected by the majority of the Chamber, the bloc of parliamentary forces demanding elections from Sánchez would immediately increase. The PNV would be the first party to openly join this demand. However, Sánchez, who has the exclusive power to call or not call elections, could resist and prolong the life, even if agonizing, of the legislature until the last day.
In any case, whether or not elections are brought forward as a consequence of the Budgets’ failure will depend on when the Government decides to send them to Congress. Parliamentary groups are betting on sending them to the Chamber at the beginning of the year so that if the bill were rejected in its overall debate – approximately one month after being sent to Congress – general elections could be held at the beginning of April. According to this roadmap, national polls would open before the regional and municipal elections scheduled for the end of May, and, furthermore, the early election relative to the mandatory end of the legislature would be considered technical.
The Minister of Finance, Arcadi España, tried in vain with the same arguments as a week ago to convince the opposition bloc, but failed. He insisted that with his fiscal path, the CCAA would benefit from 5,840 million in deficit margin to spend. In response, the PP highlighted the inconsistency of trying to change the vote when what is put on the table is the same as what was already rejected. Vox accused the Government of trying to sneak in a proposal that ultimately consists of asking Spaniards to pay more taxes while services deteriorate and the Executive “puts the country in the hands of Spain’s enemies.” Junts, for its part, which once again with its seven votes has tipped the balance, elaborated on the historical economic mistreatment dealt to Catalonia, which it describes as a “scam.” The neoconvergentes broke with the Government last October and have since kept their swords drawn against Sánchez.
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