The so-called grandchildren law, a provision of the Democratic Memory Law under which descendants of exiled Spaniards can obtain Spanish nationality and, consequently, acquire the right to vote, has become, one year before the mandatory final date for holding elections, a cause of debate and confrontation among parties.
2.5 million applications have been submitted, of which 1.2 million are already being processed and 550,000 have been approved. These are very large figures that will grow by the time of the ballot, and although by no means all of them will end up exercising the right to vote, according to the opposition, they could decisively influence the outcome of the elections in some provinces.
Suspicion about this regulation has also spread among voters. Half of the citizens -50.8%- agree that the children and grandchildren of exiles can access Spanish nationality, however support collapses at the possibility that they can register in any province and vote. At this point, the percentages reverse and a clear majority -55.2%- express opposition.
This rejection trend has a clear reason for 49.4% of respondents: increasing the electoral roll through this means ultimately aims to influence the upcoming elections, and this suspicion, clearly anchored in the electorate of the PP and Vox, is also shared by one in four PSOE voters (27%). This is the main conclusion drawn from the Sigma Dos survey for EL MUNDO.
The percentage of those who, on the contrary, consider that the grandchildren law strengthens ties with people who were forced to leave Spain and, moreover, restores to their descendants the right they lost as nationals is 41.2%.
However, as the survey shows, the public significantly distrusts an alteration in the number of people who will be able to vote in the next elections because there is no clarity about the proofs and criteria that will ultimately be followed to assign each new voter the constituency in which they can cast their ballot, and even because it is debated that people who have never lived in Spain, nor intend to do so, and who do not contribute with their taxes to the public treasury, can decide with their vote on matters that do affect resident nationals.
PP and Vox voters are the most suspicious. The former are little or not at all in agreement -65.6%- with the general principle of granting Spanish nationality to children and grandchildren of exiles, despite the fact that the PP has historically supported this measure which was even part of its electoral program.
However, now, the party denounces that the original regulation -the Historical Memory Law of 2007-, was distorted in the 2022 Democratic Memory Law with a technical instruction from the Ministry of Justice that presumes the condition of exile for all those who left Spain between 1936 and 1955, including those who did so for economic reasons.
In the case of socialist voters, the survey also brings surprises. PSOE voters clearly support the regulation -67%-, although one in four -24.5%- breaks the general trend and claims to be little or not at all in agreement with it.
The rejection percentage rises to 37.1% when it comes to expressing an opinion about the possibility that the newly naturalized can register in any province and vote in the next elections. Moreover, 26.8% consider that the so-called grandchildren law is being used to alter electoral rolls and influence the outcome of the upcoming elections.
According to the projections and data extrapolations that have been made, the increase in the electoral roll, in a volume as derived from the new naturalizations and assuming that most of them exercised the right to vote, could modify the results in between 14 and 16 provinces, those in which the last seat is awarded by a narrow margin of votes.
At the extremes of the political spectrum, Vox and Sumar voters are the most radical, and in opposite directions, regarding the law. Voters of Santiago Abascal‘s party massively reject it -79.5%-, a percentage that rises to 83.8% when they oppose the right to vote of the affected people and reaches 85.5% among those who think it is an electoral engineering maneuver to influence the polls. Conversely, Sumar voters support the regulation at 84.8%; 66.4% agree that they can vote and 82.1% consider that this law exercises justice and restores rights.
Alongside all these opinions is the position of the parties, and it is no secret that the PP is on alert due to the increase experienced in the electoral roll of voters abroad. Precisely yesterday, the main opposition party launched an offensive against the Government with a series of written questions to investigate the specific case of the Community of Madrid, where the largest number of new registrants is concentrated with an increase of 30.4% in just three years.
In the questions from the deputy spokesperson and secretary general of the PP of Madrid, Alfonso Serrano, it is quantified that the Electoral Roll of Spaniards Residing Abroad (CERA) has exceeded 2.7 million voters. In the case of the Community of Madrid, there are already 492,076 voters. Since May 2023, the current figure has increased by 114,815 people, which means there is now 30.4% more. For the Popular Party, this is an “especially striking” growth. Therefore, the PP digs deeper and wants to know why the CERA of Madrid grows at a rate that systematically doubles that of Barcelona.
The PP asks the Government for information on how many of the new registrations come from nationality acquisitions under the Democratic Memory Law and what cases are given for other reasons. Popular sources appeal to ensuring that the roll is “reliable, verifiable, and correctly assigned.”
