The start of the political season has turned into a kind of nightmare for the PSOE, which faces one of the most devilish scenarios precisely when elections (and not just general ones) are looming on the horizon. Because after the controversial mass regularization of immigrants, the public debate remains focused on the migration issue and, specifically, on Ceuta, which is facing its most serious crisis with the entry of thousands of people who illegally crossed its border on July 30. The management of the tragedy, which has dragged down the Government of Pedro Sánchez and has once again opened the party up to criticism, has nevertheless served to strengthen the leadership of the president of the autonomous city.
Juan Jesús Vivas not only comes out unscathed from the crisis, but a Sigma Dos poll for EL MUNDO boosts his popularity and allows his party, the PP, to aspire to an absolute majority in the Ceuta Assembly, in clear contrast to the PSOE’s collapse. The survey, conducted between August 26 and 30 – in the days before Sánchez’s reappearance – depicts the political cost for the socialists, relegated to a residual force after losing 15 points in voting intention. 29.4% of their voters would today choose the PP ballot.
According to the survey, if elections were held today, the PSOE would struggle to win a seat and 5.6% of the votes, when in the 2023 elections it obtained six seats and 21% of the votes. On the opposite side, Vivas’s PP would see its role rewarded by capturing one out of every two votes (50.5%), which would allow it to be in a range of 13 or 14 seats and govern with an absolute majority for which its current nine deputies do not suffice.
Vox, with whom Vivas did not want to form a coalition government in 2023, would become the second force with 21.6% of the votes. Even so, almost exclusively the popular party benefits from the socialist collapse, as Abascal‘s party would barely gain one more seat: they would have options to get between five and six. Far behind, in any case, would be the third force: the Ceuta party Ceuta ya!.
The survey gives it an improvement of 2.2 points in voting intention up to 12.2%, which would also gain it a seat and place it with three in the Assembly. The Movement for Dignity and Citizenship, on the other hand, would fall to 8.9% of the votes and lose one of its current three seats. Even so, it would surpass the PSOE’s single deputy.
Leaders’ evaluation
The Government delegate and secretary general of the PSOE of Ceuta, Miguel Ángel Pérez Triano, is left out of the game by the crisis. More than half of socialist voters (58.2%) would want the popular Vivas to be the next president of Ceuta if elections were held today. Only 12.4% of respondents who identify as socialists would bet on Pérez Triano, the Ceuta leader with the worst rating: a 2, compared to Vivas’s 8 or even the 4.5 of Fátima Hamed Hossain (MDyC), the 4.1 of Juan Sergio Redondo (Vox) and the 3.5 of Mohamed Mustafa (Ceuta Ya!).
Moreover, when asked who best defends Ceuta’s interests, 75.4% still mostly choose Vivas. Support among PP voters is 95.4%, but support for Vivas is not less among those who voted for the PSOE in the last elections. 67% consider that the current president of Ceuta has defended the city better in this crisis, compared to 16.1% who point to the Government delegate.
This explains why 68.6% of respondents declare that they have no confidence in the Government of Spain to solve this crisis. Again, more than half of socialist voters express this view, compared to 28.4% who, on the contrary, say they have a lot or quite a bit of confidence in Sánchez’s Executive, whose performance receives a resounding fail: a 1.2, surpassed only by its minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska (1.1). Even Margarita Robles fails (4.3).