The first CIS barometer published after the summer and marked by strong geopolitical and migratory tension reflects a deep wear in the government bloc. The study comes after more than a month of maximum tension following the sovereignty crisis and migratory pressure experienced in Ceuta, a scenario that has hardened the opposition’s discourse. The body led by José Félix Tezanos indicates that the Socialist Party falls 2 percentage points since July. On the other hand, the PP takes advantage of this fifth government crisis to record an increase of 0.4 points.
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Despite this wear scenario, the September CIS barometer certifies that the PSOE resists in the lead as the preferred option by voters, standing at 31% vote estimate. For its part, the PP continues consolidated in second position by registering 25.5%. Following the PSOE’s trail, the government’s minority partner, Sumar, continues its downward trend and remains at 5.7%, 0.4 points less compared to last July.
Vox rebound
In contrast, Vox firmly establishes itself as the third political force in the Chamber after recording an increase of 1.3 points, reaching 16.6% of the census. Santiago Abascal’s party started the year with 17.7% before suffering a spring slump that made them hit bottom in April and drop by 3 points in four months.
This setback coincided with a moment when the party was tainted by the investiture crisis in Extremadura and a strong internal controversy culminating in the expulsion of its former “number two,” Javier Ortega Smith. Added to this were questions about its international support for Donald Trump, in a context of trade tensions, factors that slowed its rise despite good results in regional elections such as Castilla y León.
After this constant decline, the trend has turned again in this first barometer after the summer: driven by the migratory debate caused by the Ceuta crisis, Vox experiences a rebound of 1.3 points again standing at 16.6% vote estimate and consolidating as the third political force in the hemicycle.
Podemos positions itself as the fifth force
Beyond the major national parties, the polling map shows significant movements in the space to the left of the PSOE. Notable is Podemos, which achieves a rebound reaching an estimate of 3.7%, positioning itself as the fifth political force in the country, surpassing formations such as ERC or Se Acabó la Fiesta.
As for the rest of the territorial or specific parties reflected in the September study, ERC stands at 2.5%, Se Acabó la Fiesta records 1.8%, EH Bildu reaches 1.3%, while BNG, Junts and EAJ-PNV register 0.7% each. Closing the estimates are CCa with 0.2% and UPN with 0.1%.
Voter indecision
The technical analysis of the survey, based on a sample of 4,042 interviews under the characteristic CIS scenario model, also reveals growing volatility among voters. This crisis climate is reflected in the abstention and doubt percentages: the response in the “Don’t know” indicator rises to 14.3%, while abstention stands at 5.9%.
