What if the massive arrival of migrants in Ceuta was part of an Intelligence operation driven by Morocco and Israel to destabilize Spain? This is the theory gaining ground these days in some Chinese academic and Intelligence circles. This is what Beijing officials convey in conversations with this newspaper about how the migration crisis in the Spanish autonomous city has been viewed in the world’s second-largest power.
This week, Egyptian political scientist Nadia Helmy, specialist in Chinese politics and Chinese-Israeli relations, openly embraced this thesis in an article published by Modern Diplomacy, an international magazine specializing in geopolitical analysis. The author argues that some reports prepared in Beijing interpret what happened in Ceuta as a hybrid warfare operation aimed at increasing pressure on Pedro Sánchez’s government. According to this reading, the maneuver would have involved Mossad, the Israeli Intelligence service, interested in promoting a destabilization campaign against Spain.
Helmy contrasts this interpretation with the coverage by major official Chinese media, such as CGTN or Xinhua, which focused mainly on the deployment of the Spanish Army and the implications of the crisis for the European Union’s external borders.
“Chinese Intelligence analysis centers have examined the escalation of diplomatic and political tensions between Spain and Israel. From this perspective, the deterioration of bilateral relations could have motivated Mossad to get involved in the migration crisis between Morocco and Spain, exacerbating the situation and infiltrating agents to foster discontent and chaos among the Moroccan population,” Helmy says.
In private conversations, some diplomats and analysts close to Beijing’s political circles also wonder if the assault on Ceuta is related to the progressive deterioration of relations between Madrid and Israel, marked by the Spanish government’s criticism of the massacre in Gaza and the recognition of the Palestinian State.
“Since the normalization of relations in 2020, Morocco and Israel have become allies and have tightened their defense and Intelligence cooperation,” comments a diplomat.
The theory has also found resonance outside China. Colombian President Gustavo Petro directly pointed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as ultimately responsible for the migration crisis in Ceuta. He claimed that the Israeli leader “pays for the poor to risk their lives to reach Spain” and that Morocco “has surrendered to the design of a fugitive genocidal,” linking the migration surge to the close relationship between Rabat and Tel Aviv. Petro also accused the Israeli prime minister of promoting destabilization campaigns against governments that question his policy in the Middle East.
In China, a country where border control is one of the pillars of national security, images of thousands of people crossing into Spanish territory caused a mix of astonishment and disbelief among many Chinese social media users. “How is it possible that they cross the border so easily?” was one of the most repeated questions.
The official press also focused on the political consequences for Europe. “The Ceuta crisis has exposed the deficiencies of the EU’s migration reforms after 2015 and highlights the bloc’s difficulties in building a unified response,” said Cui Hongjian, professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University, in statements to the Global Times newspaper, which devoted extensive analysis to the tensions opened within the European Union after the events at the Spanish border.
Beyond the migration dimension, Chinese officials and diplomats explain that in Beijing the crisis is mainly viewed from a geostrategic perspective. Ceuta appears as another piece on the complex board of the western Mediterranean, a region where essential maritime routes, port infrastructures, energy supplies, and an ever-growing Chinese economic presence converge.
The close relationship between the governments of Pedro Sánchez and Xi Jinping has been staged with the four visits of the Spanish president to Beijing, more than any other European leader, consolidating Spain as one of the most receptive interlocutors towards China within the European Union. However, for the communist regime, Morocco has become one of its partners with the greatest strategic projection in Africa.
Morocco, a commercial partner for China
In just five years, Rabat and Beijing have notably tightened their economic relations through large infrastructure projects and trade agreements that position the Alaouite kingdom as one of China’s main gateways to both the African and European markets.
The commitment is especially evident in the manufacturing sector. Dozens of Chinese companies have announced multimillion-dollar investments to build factories for electric vehicle components, batteries, and strategic materials in Moroccan territory. The choice responds to several factors: political stability, free trade agreements with the European Union and the United States, abundant phosphate reserves – key for battery manufacturing – and a privileged location, just 14 kilometers from Europe.
From Beijing, it is considered that Morocco can play a role similar to that assumed by Vietnam in Asia: an industrial platform from which to supply Western markets, bypassing some of the growing trade barriers affecting exports directly from China.
Added to this is increasingly intense cooperation in infrastructure. Chinese state-owned companies participate in railway, energy, and port projects, while the port of Tanger Med – the largest in the Mediterranean and one of the world’s main container traffic ports – has consolidated as a logistics hub of enormous value for Chinese supply chains. From there, goods can be quickly distributed to Europe and West Africa, reinforcing Morocco’s role as a continental logistics platform.
That is why every time a crisis breaks out in Ceuta or anywhere in northern Morocco, Beijing calculates the possible impact on one of its economic partners whose strategic importance continues to grow.
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