For the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, air raid sirens blared in the night of Poland. The sirens, introduced a few days ago in a drill, sounded this time over a real threat: the violation of airspace by an object that impacted 94 kilometers from the border leaving a large crater in the middle of the field. Hours later, the authorities clarified: it is a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile, a weapon commonly used in Putin’s regime bombings on the cities of neighboring Ukraine.
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“As you know, we have faced this question several times before: whose missile was it? We already know that Russian disinformation is underway,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk at the missile impact site, very close to the city of Lublin. “I don’t need to explain to anyone that Russia will do everything possible to avoid responsibility, but according to the assessment of our military experts, the overwhelming majority of evidence – including the recovered fragments – point to it being a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile.”
Russia launched more than 70 missiles – many of them ballistic, which are harder to intercept – and more than 280 Shahed attack drones, of which more than 260 were shot down. Precisely one of those Russian missiles ended up impacting Polish territory (by extension, NATO’s), which led Polish citizens to wonder what the real reasons are for this large projectile with enormous destructive power crossing the border. Tusk described the event as a “very serious incident,” but added: “There is absolutely no reason to believe that Poland was the target.”
But the first option analysts consider is deliberate provocation, as it adds insult to injury. In September last year, a swarm of 20 Russian attack drones crossed the border from Ukraine into Poland, impacting rural areas and forcing NATO fighters to intervene. What could Russia be seeking by deliberately launching this projectile toward Poland? To test the reaction of defense systems, response time, and procedures of the Atlantic Alliance.
Another option currently being studied is a technical failure in the propulsion, navigation system, or control system or the action of interference by electronic warfare systems, although the deviation is so large that this option is remote, as is the missile’s lack of precision. It is a weapon of Soviet origin whose ability to hit the target ranges between 90% and 70% probability, but one thing is to miss the target by 100 meters and quite another to deviate 100 kilometers.
It was a night of intense attacks on Ukrainian civilians, who have already endured four years of Russian bombings on civilian targets, a common Kremlin strategy. Russian drones and missiles killed at least eight civilians, including children, and injured more than 50 people, according to authorities. Moscow is trying to take advantage of the critical shortage in Kyiv of Western-supplied anti-missile defenses, precisely the main request of President Zelenski to his allies, starting with Trump.
Patriot Licenses
The war in Iran has depleted the reserves of these US-made interceptors. The US president has promised Zelenski to grant Ukraine licenses to manufacture their own Patriots, but production could take many months before it becomes a tangible reality.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the Commission, stated: “Another unacceptable violation of our EU airspace caused by Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine, this time over Poland. The Polish people are famous for not being afraid and our thoughts are with them. To put an end to this, we are helping Ukraine win this war in every possible way.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte spoke with Tusk and assured that “this incident is another reckless act by Russia and a dangerous consequence of its war against Ukraine.” In a message on his social networks, Rutte said that after detecting the missile’s presence, NATO and Poland activated their air and ground defenses. “We will continue strengthening our readiness to defend ourselves from any threat, including missile attacks,” the Secretary General said.
According to Colonel Martin O’Donnell, spokesperson for the Allied Military Headquarters, who spoke to EFE, they deployed two Polish F-16 fighters, a Polish Saab 340 early warning aircraft, a Polish Mi-24 helicopter, and an Airbus A330 tanker aircraft from the Atlantic Alliance’s Multinational Transport and Aerial Refueling Fleet.
A report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) published this month records at least 144 incidents with drones suspected to be of Russian origin across Europe between 2024 and 2026, mainly affecting Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Denmark, with a peak of activity at the end of 2025. But the escalation took a qualitative leap in 2026. Romania, for example, records 18 drone air incursions from Russia so far this year.
